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Data Science Assignment 5: Statistic Modeling Solution

Question 5.1: Grid Approximation Poisson

We have the data Y with 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 2, 2, 1 and 1. It follows a Poisson distribution. We can de ne a simple model for estimating the lambda parameter of the Poisson distribution as:

Y    P oisson(lambda)    [likelihood]

lambda    U niform(0; 4)    [prior]

Use a grid approximation to compute the posterior for the model with the data Y . Produce a plot to visualize the posterior. Submit the plot and the code.

Question 5.2: Grid Approximation Normal

We have the data Y with 0:3120639, 0:5550930, 0:2493114 and 0:9785842. It follows a normal distribution. We can de ne a simple model for estimating the mu (mean) and sigma (sd) parameter of the normal distribution as:

Y    N ormal(mu; sigma)    [likelihood]

mu    U niform(0; 1)    [prior]

sigma    U niform(0; 1)    [prior]

Use grid approximation to compute the posterior for the model with the data Y . Produce a plot of the posterior.

Submit the plot and the code.

Hint: Since you are approximating a two-dimensional parameter space, the grid approximation algorithm and the plot changes. Find a way to depict the posterior with respect to both parameters in a single plot.




















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